Chase Prospects Get Tighter and Tighter

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Chase Prospects Get Tighter and Tighter

I’m feeling quite melancholy today. I’m invoking my 200-point rule, an annual ritual that I’ve done for the last three years.

As much as I hate to eliminate potential contenders, I’m cutting the number of prospective drivers to make the Chase for the Sprint Cup. That’s where my 200-point rule comes in. You see, if a driver is not within 200 points of 12th place after the 19th race – and with seven races to go to make the Chase – he’s all but done

So, let’s do the math: Matt Kenseth currently sits in 12th position – the cut-off point for those who make or don’t make the Chase. Now, granted, there are four drivers within 13 points of each other, including Greg Biffle, who is 10 points behind Kenseth, but is the first guy outside the top-12.

After Biffle comes David Reutimann, Clint Bowyer, Brian Vickers and Jeff Burton, who sits 172 points behind Kenseth.

That’s it. The next closest driver is Marcus Ambrose, but he’s past the 200-point rule, namely 217 points behind Kenseth, a spread that’s just too far to overcome – unless Ambrose were to win the next seven races in a row.

Somehow, that’s something I don’t exactly see happening.

The 200-point rule always leads to the next question: who ultimately makes the Chase and who doesn’t?

So, with seven races left, here are my picks for the 2009 Chase class: Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Kurt Busch, Denny Hamlin, Carl Edwards, Ryan Newman, Kasey Kahne, Kyle Busch, Mark Martin, Greg Biffle and David Reutimann.

Ergo, Clint Bowyer, Brian Vickers, Jeff Burton, Juan Pablo Montoya and Matt Kenseth (who, along with Johnson, have been the only drivers to make each of the first five editions of the Chase) do not make it this year.

That, even though Kenseth won the season-opening Daytona 500, as well as the following race at Fontana, Calif., but has struggled since.

There you have it, my 200-point rule. Who do you see making it or not? Drop me an e-mail at Motorsportwriter@msn.com and let me know your thoughts.

Talk to you on Tuesday.