Four Races And Six Drivers Down, Chase Starting to Look Familiar
Jerry Markland/Getty Images for NASCAR
I had such high hopes for this year’s Chase for the Sprint Cup.
Given how the 26-race “regular season” played out, I was convinced we were going to have the most exciting edition of the Chase since its inaugural campaign in 2004.
And while things could still turn around for a few of the drivers, it’s pretty clear that close to half the 12-driver field has already been eliminated – and with six races still to go in the 10-race Chase.
At 351 points back points leader and three-time defending Chase champ Jimmie Johnson, Brian Vickers is fini. I hear Soho in New York is pretty this time of year. Go ahead, take the rest of the season off, Brian, you’ve earned it. Go explore your neighborhood in the Big Apple.
At 306 points behind, Kasey Kahne might as well go back home to Enumclaw, Wash., and watch the Seahawks on TV. Wait a minute, maybe driving a race car is slightly better than watching the Seahawks this season.
Then there’s Ryan Newman (223 back) and Denny Hamlin (219 behind) in 10th and 9th place, respectively. Had Hamlin not made the self-professed “rookie mistake” in Sunday’s race at California, he could have easily been right in the middle of the Chase battle still. Instead, he wrecked out, finished 37th and, for all intents and purposes, is history.
Newman, even though he’s four points in arrears to Hamlin, still has a shot at making the top-5 by season’s end, but it’s going to be tough. Hamlin will not make the top-5, I’m convinced, so there’s no point of even mentioning him in the same breath as Newman.
Even Roush Fenway Racing teammates Carl Edwards (192 back) and Greg Biffle (188 behind) have little hope of bouncing back. They would have to win four of the remaining six races – and hope Johnson and Mark Martin have some mechanical catastrophes in a couple of those races – to have an outside shot of rallying.
Which leaves us with essentially what has become a six-driver Chase now. Kurt Busch (121 back) and Jeff Gordon (minus-105) are still in the hunt, but they need to make some serious progress in the next two races to at least maintain a fighting chance.
The only problem with that is Johnson is coming into two of his most successful tracks in these next two weekends: Charlotte this Saturday and Martinsville the following Sunday. We’ll know just what kind of Chase we have left two weeks from now after the hard-fought short trace race in southern Virginia. If Johnson is ahead of his fellow competitors by at least 50 to 75 points, you might as well stick a fork in everyone else, because they’ll all be done.
Of the four drivers all within 100 points of the lead, Johnson, Martin (12 back), Juan Pablo Montoya (58 back) and Tony Stewart (84 behind), I still hold Stewart as my darkhorse. He needs to win like he did at Kansas and do it at least two, if not three more times to give Johnson any legitimate challenge.
Montoya, the only driver in the top-6 without a win this season, keeps knocking on the door so much that he’s become like a pesky neighbor continually asking to bother a cup of sugar or salt or flour. But I mean that in a good way for JPM. He’s flown under the radar all season and has definitely stolen several pages of Johnson’s “How To Be Consistent When It Counts The Most” playbook. I predict Montoya visits victory lane at least twice in the remaining six races, with the best shots in my mind being Martinsville and Texas (and possibly Homestead, if the Chase battle does come down to the final race of the season).
Lastly, Martin is only 12 points behind. He’s already surrendered the top spot in the standings; he can’t afford to fall back any further.
And then there’s Johnson. What else can be said about him that hasn’t already been said? He’s gone from his usual role of pursuer to the more comfortable role – at least for him – of now becoming the pursued. He really seems to get a thrill out of holding everyone else at bay.
And given that he’s back atop the standings, I wouldn’t be surprised if Johnson does this time what he has not done in his first three title finishes: wrap the championship up before Homestead, instead of waiting until the season finale to do so. My guess, if things continue going Jimmie’s way, he wraps it all up by Phoenix – and possibly even Texas if he can pick up another two more wins between now and then.
Yes, everyone else has their work cut out for them, and maybe we’ll still see some major surprises in the remaining month and a half. But frankly, the way things have played out already, I’m nowhere near as optimistic as I was when the Chase started a month ago. I’m not ready to concede Johnson the title just yet, but I’m getting a bit closer a lot sooner than I thought I would.
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