Regardless of Texas Struggles, Johnson Still No. 1 Story in Phoenix
How can you look at this weekend’s Sprint Cup race in Phoenix and not talk about Jimmie Johnson as the big story?
Try as you may, you just can’t.
Even though guys like Mark Martin, Jeff Gordon, Kurt Busch and Tony Stewart all still have a mathematical shot at the title, Johnson’s name will likely be the first mentioned in any scenario that folks discuss this weekend.
Can Jimmie come back from the devastating mishap at Texas last week? Can Jimmie regain a good chunk of the points he lost and head into the season finale at Homestead with a fairly decent cushion?
Or, how about, can Jimmie earn enough points – it’s mathematically possible but not likely – to clinch the championship at Phoenix? He’d have to leave the Valley of the Sun 195 points ahead of whoever was in second place (although some folks are saying he only has to leave Phoenix with a 162-point lead and simply start next week’s season finale at Homestead to officially clinch). That means Johnson, who lost 111 points Sunday at Texas, would have to earn back 122 points to wrap things up.
In other words, Martin would essentially have to finish 38th or lower, if my math is correct, and Johnson would have to win Sunday. That’s a pretty tall order. And Gordon, Busch and Stewart would have to suffer through equally bad days for all the stars to align in Johnson’s favor.
Likely? Not.
Which means, for all intents and purposes, the championship will – again – not be decided until Homestead.
That keeps a streak going since the inception of the Chase for the Cup that no driver – not Kurt Busch, Tony Stewart, or Johnson the last three years – has managed to clinch the crown at Phoenix, the second-to-last race of the season.
Plus, remember this: Johnson thrives on pressure situations like the one he finds himself currently in. Although his lead over Martin is somewhat comfortable, it’s certainly nowhere near as safe as his 184-point lead was heading into Texas.
At the same time, if you look at Johnson’s history in Cup racing – particularly during the Chase – whenever he has a bad race, he typically follows it up with a strong race the following week, oftentimes winding up with a win, no less.
That’s exactly what I expect to see from JJ and the No. 48 team on Sunday. Oh, and might I point out, in 12 career starts at Phoenix International Raceway, Johnson has three wins, seven top-5 and 10 overall top-10 finishes. In other words, a good finish is almost a cinch for him.
Oh yeah, but perhaps the most important stat of all to note: in the last three fall races at PIR, which were the next-to-last step towards Johnson winning each of his three titles, Johnson’s record at PIR is second, first and first.
We can talk all we want about how Martin is “only” 73 points behind Johnson, or how Gordon, Busch or Stewart still have it in them to make a last-ditch rally to make the championship a real nail-biter.
Sorry, I just don’t see it. The title is Johnson’s. It’s just a matter of time.
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