Four Races Identify Contenders, Not Eventual Champion
Media prognosticators recently tabbed Ron Hornaday Jr. (No. 33 Longhorn Chevrolet) to win a record fourth NASCAR Camping World Truck Series championship in 2009.
History, however, says the veracity of that prediction won’t be known until mid-November when the checkered flag has fallen at Homestead-Miami Speedway. The title race has gone down to the final race in 13 of 14 previous seasons.
Four races into the schedule with the running of Monday’s Kroger 250 at Martinsville Speedway, however, there are solid clues as to who the title contenders will be — and which drivers must overcome mediocre starts to join the group. The record book says:
Kyle Busch (No 51 Miccosukee Resort Toyota), the current points leader, is unlikely to win the championship. Busch has no plans to pursue a full schedule. And more significantly, the leader after race No. 4 has failed to capture the title in 12 of 14 seasons and not since Jack Sprague in 1997.
A ranking among the first four positions is the most likely springboard to a title. Eight of the past 11 champions have ranked fourth or better after running four races.
Johnny Benson (No. 1 Red Horse Racing Toyota), however, was ninth at this point a year ago and still won the championship. Good news for Benson. He ranks seventh after entering Martinsville outside the top 10.
A triple-digit deficit can be overcome. Five champions have come from 100 or more points off the lead four races into the season. Benson (2008) and Hornaday (2007) each left Martinsville Speedway 144 points in the hole. One hundred twenty-one points is the difference between first and fifth this year.
Leading Isn’t Everything – Yet
The eventual champion wasn’t the points leader after four races in any of the 11 most recent seasons.
Year Champion Rank Points Behind
2008 J. Benson 9th 144
2007 R. Hornaday Jr. 4th 144
2006 T. Bodine 3rd 58
2005 T. Musgrave 3rd 28
2004 B. Hamilton 4th 70
2003 T. Kvapil 6th 101
2002 M. Bliss 4th 24
2001 J. Sprague 6th 100
2000 G. Biffle 4th 96
1999 J. Sprague 4th 107
1998 R. Hornaday Jr. 2nd 8
Average 4.5 79.9
Martinsville Race Ends ‘Lock-Ins’ From 2008 Owner Points
The collective sigh of relief heard following Martinsville Speedway’s Kroger 250 came from a number of teams new to the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series which did not possess locked-in positions based on the 2008 series owners’ championship standings.
Two of those teams — Randy Moss Motorsports and Red Horse Racing — have past champions in their trucks so they weren’t exactly working without a net. The switch to 2009 points, however, gives both Benson and Mike Skinner (No. 5 Bad Boy Mowers Toyota) top-30 positions.
Skinner and Benson hardly have missed a beat driving for new owners. Skinner ranks fifth in points after finishing third in the Kroger 250 while Benson, winner of last fall’s Martinsville race, jumped from 11th to seventh on the strength of his fourth-place finish — the defending NCWTS champion’s first top five of 2009.
Also bumping into the guaranteed starter category are Terry Cook (No. 25 Harris Trucking Toyota) and Timothy Peters (No. 17 Hayes Iron and Metal Toyota). Cook is sixth, Peters ninth in current standings.
Andy Hillenburg’s No. 48 Chevrolet also qualifies as a top-30 starter for next month’s race at Kansas Speedway along with Dwayne Gaulding’s No. 21 Gunbroker.com Dodge, David McClure’s No. 47 Chevrolet and Norm Benning’s No. 57 Chevrolet. All but Benning have employed multiple drivers during the season’s first four races.
In The Loop
With Kyle Busch likely out of the No. 51 Toyota at Kansas Speedway for the first time this season, a three-way battle for the points lead emerges between three former series champions – Todd Bodine (No. 30 Toyota), Ron Hornaday Jr. and Mike Skinner.
All three have eclipsed the 600-point mark after four races and have racked up some of the best early season statistics.
All rank in the top five in most key Loop Data categories and usually follow Busch in the top four.
Hornaday, third in the points, has an Average Running Position of 5.1 (second-best), Driver Rating of 114.0 (second), 46 Fastest Laps Run (third) and a series-high 562 Laps in the Top 15 (96.7%).
Bodine, second in points, has an Average Running Position of 6.4 (third), a Driver Rating of 105.9 (fourth), 23 Fastest Laps Run (seventh) and 501 (86.2%) Laps in the Top 15 (fourth).
Skinner, fourth in points and having a stellar first season with Randy Moss Motorsports, has an Average Running Position of 7.3 (fourth), a Driver Rating of 106.3 (third), 40 Fastest Laps Run (fourth) and 544 (93.6%) Laps in the Top 15 (second).
The leader in most of those categories, of course, is also the point leader — Busch.
