Carl Vs. Kyle: Emerging Rivals Fight For Chase Momentum
When Carl Edwards (No. 99 AFLAC Ford) bumped Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M’s Toyota) out of his way on Lap 470 at Bristol Motor Speedway, he was doing more than just trying to win the race. He was sending a message to Busch and the entire NASCAR Sprint Cup Series field that he is a true contender for the championship and won’t back down from anybody.
Edwards has been chasing Busch for the top spot the entire season and has narrowed the gap with consecutive wins at Michigan and Bristol. The two drivers have combined to win six of the last seven races and 14 of 24 on the season. Edwards was the runner-up in three of Busch�s victories and Busch has finished second in each of Edwards’s last two victories.
The next round of the battle is slated for Auto Club Speedway on Sunday evening, a place where each driver has succeeded. Edwards won the February race at the Southern California track, while Busch earned his first career win there in 2005.
So far, the two are the only drivers to clinch a spot in the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup. Busch has earned the top seed and will start with at least 80 bonus points (10 points for each win). Edwards has clinched the second seed and will have at least 50 bonus points.
Bristol Blurs Bubble Picture
Two races remain before the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup and the 12 Chase participants are far from set. Only 101 points separate the drivers currently in positions 11 through 14. Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Ground Toyota) (11th place), Clint Bowyer (No. 07 Jack Daniel’s Chevrolet) (12th) and David Ragan (No. 6 AAA Ford) (13th) each moved up one position after Kasey Kahne (No. 9 Budweiser Dodge) finished 40th at Bristol, dropping him to 14th in the standings.
Furthermore, seventh-place Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford) is only 141 points ahead of Ragan, the first driver on the wrong side of the bubble.
“I’ve felt like we’ve had a chance to be in the Chase since the beginning of the year, Ragan said. Our AAA Ford has been fast every week and as a team we haven’t made many mistakes. We deserve to be in the position we are in and just have to take these last two races one at a time.”
Ragan may have some difficulty catching the field at Auto Club Speedway, where he has yet to register a top-10 finish in three starts. His Driver Rating of 77.4, is 18th-best, the lowest of the drivers he is battling for a spot in the Chase.
Two Down, 10 To Go: Several Drivers Look To Secure Chase Berths
Only two drivers Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards have clinched a position in the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup, leaving the final 10 spots up for grabs. Three drivers control their own destiny this weekend, with six others having the opportunity to clinch based on others results.
To clinch a Chase spot, a driver needs to leave Auto Club Speedway with a 196-point lead over 13th place.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 National Guard/AMP Energy Chevrolet), Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s/Kobalt Tools Chevrolet) and Jeff Burton (No. 31 AT&T Mobility Chevrolet) can all lock up a Chase berth regardless of what any other driver does. Earnhardt and Johnson each need to finish 40th or better, or finish 41st and lead at least one lap. Burton can sew up his spot by finishing 15th or better, 16th or 17th and lead one lap or 20th and lead the most laps.
“Well, we are obviously in a position of need, Burton said. We need to get ourselves in the Chase. That is goal number one. To do that, we need to have good finishes, we need to run well, we need to compete at a high level and we need to get the best finish that we can.
We certainly don’t want to put ourselves in a situation that we didn’t have to be in because I did something silly or we had a mechanical problem. But at the same time, you have to compete at a high level. The competition is too tough.
Six other drivers can clinch this weekend as well, but must rely on help from other drivers. All six must increase their current points lead over 13th place in Sunday�s race. The drivers who can reach the important 196-point margin this weekend are:
Tony Stewart (No. 20 Subway Toyota) currently 170 points ahead of 13th; needs to pad his lead by 26 points.
Greg Biffle currently 141 points ahead of 13th; needs to pad his lead by 55 points.
Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Shell-Pennzoil Chevrolet) currently 129 points ahead of 13th; needs to pad his lead by 67 points.
Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet) currently 108 points ahead of 13th; needs to pad his lead by 88 points.
Matt Kenseth (No. 17 R & L Carriers Ford) currently 78 points ahead of 13th; needs to pad his lead by 118 points.
Denny Hamlin currently 57 points ahead of 13th; needs to pad his lead by 139 points.
Clint Bowyer is currently 12th in the standings, 12 points ahead of 13th. There is no scenario for Bowyer to clinch a spot if David Ragan starts Sunday’s race.
Top 35: No. 66 Chevrolet Leaps Into Locked-In Position
Scott Riggs (No. 66 State Water Heater Chevrolet) finished 27th at Bristol, bringing his Joe Custer-owned Chevrolet to 34th in the owner standings above Sam Hornish Jr. (No. 77 Penske Truck Rental Dodge) who finished 37th. The No. 77, owned by Roger Penske, sits 35th in the standings, the final locked-in position.
Each week the top 35 cars in the NASCAR Sprint Cup owner standings are locked in to the race, regardless of qualifying time. The remaining eight positions are set based on qualifying.
California-native AJ Allmendinger will have to make the Pepsi 500 on qualifying time in the No. 84 Red Bull Toyota owned by Dietrich Mateschitz. The team is currently 36th in owner standings, 14 points behind the No. 77.
Mike Skinner (No. 00 Champion Mortgage Toyota), another California native, will attempt to put the Michael Waltrip-owned car into the race. Skinner, the all-time pole leader in the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series, is temporarily replacing rookie Michael McDowell to help the team make races. Skinner filled the same role for Allmendinger for five races earlier this season.
Loop Data: Auto Club Speedway Win Eludes Stewart
No doubt, Tony Stewart has had a prolific career. With 32 wins and two NASCAR Sprint Cup Series championships, the Indiana native ranks among the most successful drivers in NASCAR�s history.
What may stand out most is Stewart’s versatility. He can win at any track, any where, any time. Only four tracks on the NASCAR Sprint Cup schedule have yet to be conquered by Stewart: Darlington, Las Vegas, Talladega and Auto Club Speedway the site of this weekend�s race.
That list may be trimmed down to three after Sunday’s Pepsi 500. Stewart has finished in the top 10 in three of the last four races at Auto Club Speedway, and boasts some of the top Loop Data statistics at ACS since 2005.
Over the past seven ACS races, Stewart has a Driver Rating of 101.0 (fifth-best), an Average Running Position of 10.6 (sixth), 130 Fastest Laps Run (second) and a Laps in the Top 15 percentage of 75.2% (sixth).
In each of the past six ASC races, Stewart had a car that could have won � including the spring race of 2006, when he finished 43rd because of engine trouble.
The statistic breakdown is impressive:
Summer 2005: Stewart registered a Driver Rating of 128.2, his highest at Auto Club Speedway. Finishing fifth, Stewart also had an Average Running Position of 3.0 and 21 Fastest Laps Run, while running all 254 laps in the top 15.
Spring 2006: A last place finish is all Stewart will probably remember from this race, but he was certainly one of best out there. He had a Driver Rating of 101.9, an Average Running Position of 12.2 and 54 Fastest Laps Run.
Summer 2006: Statistically, the only real difference between the 2006 summer version and the 2006 spring version was the finish. Stewart crossed the line in ninth, but notched the exact same Driver Rating � 101.9 � as he did in the spring 2006 race.
Spring 2007: Leading 28 laps and scoring a strong Driver Rating of 114.4, Stewart finished eighth. His statistical highlight this race was a Pass Differential (passes minus times passed) of +34 � his highest at ACS.
Summer 2007: Though his 13th-place finish was solid, it stands as his worst statistical ACS performance of the past six races. He scored a Driver Rating of 91.7.
Spring 2008: Stewart�s highest position was third, but he finished seventh. His Driver Rating of 99.5 was eighth-best that race.
Raybestos Rookie Of The Year Standings
Rookie Pts
Regan Smith 181
Sam Hornish Jr. 179
Patrick Carpentier 170
Michael McDowell 156
Dario Franchitti 80
Regan Smith (No. 01 DEI/The Principal Financial Group Chevrolet) finished 14th on Saturday to extend his lead over Sam Hornish Jr. to two points in the Raybestos Rookie of the Year standings.
It was the seventh time this season that Smith was the Raybestos Rookie of the Race, including all four short tracks (both Bristol Motor Speedway events, Martinsville Speedway and Richmond International Raceway.)
Manufacturers Standings
Carl Edwards’ victory was the sixth victory of the season for Ford, which now trails Toyota by 17 points in the Manufacturers� Standings. Edwards is the only Ford driver with a victory this season.
Toyota is the only manufacturer without a win at Auto Club Speedway. Ford leads the way with nine victories, including Edwards� February win, Chevrolet has six and Dodge has one.
Up Next: Chevy Rock N Roll 400 at Richmond International Raceway
The �Race to the Chase� will come to an end next weekend with the Chevy Rock� N Roll 400 at Richmond International Speedway. For the fifth consecutive season, Richmond will mark the cutoff race for drivers to make the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup. The top 12 drivers after Richmond will advance to the Chase and be seeded by bonus points accrued through race victories.
Last season, Dale Earnhardt Jr. was the last driver left out of the Chase after finishing 30th.
Jimmie Johnson is the defending race winner after starting on the pole.
| 
|