A strong Chase start means little. Or everything. Really, it depends on the driver. Only one eventual champion won the first Chase race: Kurt Busch in 2004. Then you have Jimmie Johnson, who finished 39th in the Chase opener of 2006 and 25th to start the Chase last year. He won both year’s championships.
But here’s how competitive this Chase is. On the far side of the post-race points standings sheet, is a column labeled G/L, signifying the number of points positions gained or lost from the prior week. On the Chicagoland sheet, one driver (Denny Hamlin) gained zero positions. Four lost positions: Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, Matt Kenseth and Jeff Gordon.
Four of those drivers were the rare few Chasers who finished outside the top 10. Johnson finished 10th, and still lost spots. In other words, it’s top 10 – and maybe even top five – or bust.
Here’s good news for the aforementioned drivers who had so-so Chicagoland races: Race No. 2 in the Chase might be more indicative of things to come. In four of the seven Chase’s, the eventual champion finished in the top five in race No. 2 – and Johnson won each of the last two.
An outlook for each of the possible Comeback Kids…
Jimmie Johnson: With three victories and top-10 finishes in eight of the last nine New Hampshire races, Johnson will likely move upward in the points standings once again.
Kyle Busch: Busch was a hard-luck 22nd-place finisher at Chicagoland (he ran out of gas, and had to pit). He has one New Hampshire win, and top 10s in four of the last six races there.
Matt Kenseth: Likewise, an empty gas tank and an illegal push from JJ Yeley dropped Kenseth to 21st at Chicagoland. His NHMS statistics are a tad worrisome. His average finish over the last seven (all finishes outside the top 10): 23.3.
Jeff Gordon: A three-time winner at New Hampshire, Gordon has top-10 finishes in two of the last three races. He also has led more laps at NHMS than any other driver: 1,226.
Denny Hamlin: Now 41 points behind leader Kevin Harvick after a 31st-place finish at Chicagoland, Hamlin has finished third and second in his last two New Hampshire races.
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