Jimmie Johnson, thanks to the fifth-worst finish of his Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup™ career (34th), now sits eighth in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series standings, 35 points behind leader Carl Edwards.
With any other driver, that would register a minor blip on the news radar. Bad finishes happen. Sometimes it’s just not your year.
But with Johnson, this is a bombshell, adding yet another chapter in the ongoing “Is He Done?” saga.
Face It, It’s Just Not His Chase
There are two reasons to believe Johnson won’t climb out of this hole.
1) That famous luck that blankets Johnson? Gone. His statistics over the first five races would suggest that Johnson is dominating. Of course, that’s not the case. Through the first five Chase races, Johnson has a Driver Rating of 114.2, an Average Running Position of 6.5, 234 Fastest Laps Run and 395 laps led. All those figures rank first among Chase drivers.
2) There are A) too many drivers ahead of him and B) those drivers ahead of him show little sign of faltering. Points leader Edwards has top-10 finishes in all five races, the only driver to do so. Second- and third-place Kevin Harvick and Matt Kenseth have each finished in the top 10 in four of the five Chase races. Only two drivers in the top eight have two finishes outside the top 15 in the Chase: Johnson and Brad Keselowski. Consistency from those ahead of him may end his unprecedented run.
It’s Not Over ’Til It’s Over, Especially With Johnson
There are three reasons to believe Johnson will climb out of this hole.
1) Johnson’s current 35-point deficit roughly equates to 145 points in the “old” points system. With five races to go in 2006, Johnson overcame a deficit of 146 points to win his first championship.
2) He can win races in bunches, especially in pressure packed situations like this one. In 2007, Johnson won four consecutive races – at this exact juncture.
3) Talladega and Phoenix await. Talladega is the ultimate wild-card track (more on this in the note below). Phoenix, with its repave, is an unknown. Some called it a brand-new track after the test two weeks ago.
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