Statistically speaking, two storylines may continue through this weekend’s race at Auto Club Speedway. One is Matt Kenseth’s success. The other is Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s struggles.
Everything worked perfectly for Kenseth last Sunday, as he captured his first Daytona 500 victory. Don’t be surprised if he goes 2-for-2, winning Sunday’s Auto Club 500.
Statistically, the 2-mile track is one of Kenseth’s best:
Best Avg. Driver Ratings
Driver
Track Rating
Chicagoland 120.4
Dover 114.5
Homestead 113.7
Auto Club 110.8
Las Vegas 107.8
Best Combined Avg. Finish
Avg.
Track Finish
Las Vegas 9.0
Michigan 9.1
Auto Club 9.6
Chicagoland 9.8
Texas 10.1
The Daytona 500, meanwhile, was not one of Earnhardt’s best days. He finished 27th, had two pit road mistakes and is generally blamed for causing a multi-car incident.
Earnhardt now gets to race at Auto Club Speedway.
Statistically, that’s not a good thing.
Auto Club Speedway could be Earnhardt’s worst track.
In his 328-race career, Earnhardt has finished 38th or worse 25 times. Three of those finishes have come at Auto Club Speedway – only unpredictable Talladega appears that many times on his personal “worst of” list.
Earnhardt has more sub-50.0 Driver Ratings at Auto Club Speedway than any other track. Since the inception of the Loop Data statistic in 2005, Earnhardt has scored 11 Driver Ratings less than 50.0.
Three of those were at Auto Club Speedway, the only track to appear more than once on the list:
Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s Lowest Race Driver Ratings
Driver
Rk Track Date Finish Rating
1. Indianapolis 8/7/2005 43 27.9
2. Las Vegas 3/13/2005 42 29.1
3. Kansas 10/9/2005 34 35.7
3. Infineon 6/26/2005 42 35.7
5. Daytona 7/7/2007 36 43.3
6. Dover 6/1/2008 35 43.7
7. Pocono 6/12/2005 33 45.2
8. Auto Club 9/4/2005 38 47.2
9. Auto Club 2/27/2005 32 47.6
10. Homestead 11/18/2007 36 47.8
11. Auto Club 2/25/2007 40 49.6
That’s not to say Earnhardt hasn’t had some success out West. He finished second at Auto Club Speedway in 2006, posting a Driver Rating of 119.1 and fifth in 2007, with a Driver Rating of 118.3.
Still, according to the numbers, those finishes are rare at Auto Club Speedway. The track ranks among his worst in both average Driver Rating and average finish:
Lowest Avg. Driver Ratings
Driver
Track Rating
Homestead 67.7
Infineon 69.0
Indianapolis 72.6
Auto Club 75.6
Las Vegas 77.2
Lowest Combined Avg. Finish
Avg.
Track Finish
Homestead 23.4
Infineon 20.9
Watkins Glen 20.8
Auto Club 20.6
Indianapolis 20.1
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