The Chevy Rock N Roll 400, next Saturday night at the Richmond International Raceway, will be one of the most important races the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series’ teams will see all year long. This is the race that’s going to identify the class of 2009 and who gets to participate in the Sprint Cup Chase For The Championship. The fact that the 12 man Chase line up will be determined on this Virginia short track, that thinks it’s a super speedway, is going to make Saturday night even more exciting.
The Chase Breakdown
We already know that Tony Stewart cliched his Chase berth at the Michigan race. Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon earned their Chase entries at Bristol while Denny Hamlin clinched his spot last Sunday night in Atlanta.
From that point on it’s white knuckle time for the remainder of the top 12 in the championship standings. There are eight spots left in the Chase line up with 11 drivers eligible to claim their right to race for a championship worth several million dollars. There are some very significant numbers connected to these 11 drivers and, quite frankly, if they get one good night’s sleep this entire week that alone will be quite remarkable.
Sitting fifth in the standings, going into the Richmond race, is Carl Edwards. He was expected to be the first of the Roush Fenway Racing Fords to clinch a Chase berth last Sunday at Atlanta. However, some on track debris broke his oil cooler box and he found himself going home with a 37th place finish.
While Edwards’ Chase potential numbers has tightened up this week he’s still basically in good shape to earn a starting berth. He can do that by finishing 24th or better at Richmond. He can also clinch with a 25th place finish with the five bonus points from leading a lap or finish 27th with the extra five bonus points for leading the most laps. This may be one of those rare times when you see this driver points racing.
Sixth in the standings is Kasey Kahne and his Richard Petty Motorsports Dodge. This may one of the big stories of 2009 because no one really expected this team to be in the Chase when the season started last February. But some consistent finishes over the past few months, combined with that huge win at Atlanta last Sunday, has turned this team into a major Chase player.
To officially clinch a Chase berth at Richmond, Kahne needs to finish 21st or better, 23d after leading a lap or 24th after leading the most laps. This seems plausible but also expect him to drive a rather cautious race Saturday night.
Kurt Busch, 7th in the standings, was also expected to clinch his Chase berth at Atlanta but instead found himself collected in a crash not of his making. Despite the setback Busch is basically in good shape, as long as there’s no more bad luck, to place his Penske Racing Dodge in the Chase line up.
He can accomplish this with a 20th place finish or better, 22nd with leading a lap and 24th after leading the most laps.
Now we get to the group of drivers where the numbers really start to get interesting. This group of five are only 88 laps away from 13th in the standings and may seriously be considering doing some points racing to make sure they don’t wind up on the outside looking in.
This group is led by Juan Pablo Montoya who freely admits that he’s been points racing to make sure his Earnhardt-Ganassi Racing, EGR, Chevrolet makes the Chase. Montoya’s #42 Chevrolet is really the only source of pride for EGR at a point in time when this organization needs something to be proud of. A Chase berth would do wonders for the organization’s efforts towards soliciting sponsorship for their two car, that began as a four car, operation.
To accomplish this Montoya needs to finish 18th or better Saturday night, 20th with a lap led and 21st after leading the most laps.
When Tony Stewart announced that he was leaving Joe Gibbs Racing to start his own team, and was bringing Ryan Newman with him, no one expected very much from them in 2009. Clearly we were all wrong. Stewart has a better than great chance of winning the title and Newman is looking good to put the second team in the Chase line up.
Newman is 81 points ahead of the 13th position. He can officially claim a Chase berth with a 16th place finish or better, 17th with a lap led and 19th after leading the most laps at Richmond. A Chase berth will also go a long way towards acquiring the needed additional sponsorship for Newman’s team for next year.
Now the tension really starts to mount.
Tenth in the standing is ageless icon Mark Martin who is 69 points away from 13th. A little over three weeks ago Martin, a four time race winner, was in danger of falling out of the top 12th following a disastrous fuel mileage gamble at the Michigan race. However rock solid runs at Bristol and Atlanta has eased that sting a little.
But Martin is not out of the woods yet because any form of hard luck at Richmond could put him between that proverbial rock and a hard place again. Martin can officially clinch his Chase berth by finishing 12th or better Saturday night, 14th with a lap lead or 15th after leading the most laps.
11th in the standings is the Roush Fenway Racing Ford driven by Greg Biffle who is 68 points out of 13th. Here’s another driver who may have trouble sleeping Friday night while worrying over Chase scenarios. He’s also another driver who simply cannot afford a bad night at Richmond.
Biffle can officially clinch his Chase berth with an 11th place finish or better, 13th with a lap lead or 14th after leading the most laps
The one driver everyone will be watching Saturday night will be Matt Kenseth. The Roush Fenway Racing driver is not just trying to keep a spot in the 12 man Chase line up. He’s made every championship run since the inception of the Chase and wants to keep that streak alive. The Kenseth season is somewhat of a mystery. The team started the 2009 season strong with back to back wins at Daytona and California. But since that time his season has been seen the consistency level of a roller coaster ride. Not only does Kenseth have to worry about who’s ahead of him in the standings, he also has to keep a sharp eye on who’s trying to come up behind him. He’s only 20 points out of 13th.
A win at Richmond will certainly ease all of Kenseth’s concerns. He can also clinch a Chase berth with a second place finish with a lap led or 3d after leading the most laps in the race. He is absolutely the focal point of this year’s Chase drama.
| 
|