FMCM
NASCAR’s Sprint Cup teams journeys to Fort Worth Texas this weekend for race number eight in the Chase For The Championship. Just like the last few Chase events, the Dickie’s 500 at the Texas Motor Speedway will again examine the question can anyone slow down the Jimmie Johnson’s championship train? Don’t be looking for any Chase miracles by the time this race is over.
THE CHASE BREAKDOWN
The last thing NASCAR wants to see is Jimmie Johnson clinch his history making fourth consecutive championship before the Chase, and season, finale in Florida November 22nd. Realistically that’s probably what’s going to happen.
Johnson goes into the Texas race 184 points ahead of team mate Mark Martin and 192 points ahead team mate, and team co-owner, Jeff Gordon.
Like any American national sport in the championship mode there are the presence of magic numbers. Johnson’s magic number seems to be 402 points. If he accumulates that many points over the final three races he will earn that fourth title irregardless what late season action Martin can generate. That includes Martin winning all three of the final races.
In a best case scenario hypothetical let’s say Martin does indeed win the remaining three races while collecting maximum points including the bonus for most laps led in each race. Martin would collect a maximum total of 585 points and finish the season with 6,649 points.
Going into this Sunday’s race at Texas, Johnson already has accumulated 6,248 points. That’s 401 points below Martin’s best case season ending scenario. To prevent a possible three race win streak by Martin from stealing the championship on the last day of the year, Johnson needs to make sure he collects 402 points during the course of those final trio of events. That computes to an average of 134 points from each of the three remaining races. That means he has to finish tenth or better in each race to prevent Martin from running the table on him.
Now let’s return to reality. Is it possible for Martin to run the table and win those final three races? It’s not impossible but it’s not likely. Is it likely that Johnson is going to finish tenth or better during these final trio of events? You can bet the farm on it. This is especially true in light of the previous stats Johnson has accumulated at Texas and Phoenix.
There appears to be yet another history making scenario that applies to this year’s Chase. With Johnson, Martin and Gordon at one-two-three in the standings then it’s possible that Rick Hendrick could become the first team owner to sweep the top three positions in a NASCAR championship.
However, drivers Juan Pablo Montoya and Tony Stewart could play the role of spoilers in this historic scenario. Montoya is fourth in the standings just 47 points behind Gordon. Stewart, whose self owned team has an alliance with Hendrick Motorsports, is fifth in the ranking and 87 points away from third.
Here’s another interesting NASCAR championship note. If the Chase format had never been invented, and NASCAR was still using the old points system, Jimmie Johnson would still be the points leader but would only have a seven point advantage over Tony Stewart and a 72 point lead over Jeff Gordon.
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THE STORY BREAKDOWN
During the course of the Texas Motor Speedway weekend there’s going to be several story lines that will be tracked by the racing media. Topping that list will be the one story that has already turned into a feeding frenzy: Danica.
It was revealed earlier this week that Indy Racing League star Danica Patrick is extremely close to signing a two year contract with J R Motorsports, owned by Dale Earnhardt Jr in association with Rick Hendrick, to make her NASCAR debut next year. Patrick is expected to drive a part time schedule in the team’s #5 Chevrolet in the Nationwide Series that will gradually allow her to make a transition to NASCAR. This will be in addition to her full time IRL schedule. She’s under contract to Andretti Green Racing for the next three years.
Get ready for it racing fans. This is one story that will trump just about everything in the NASCAR news for the next several days.
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On the subject of Dale Earnhardt Jr, he will be introduced to a very special fan this weekend via special arrangements by the Make A Wish Foundation the organization famous for granting special wishes to seriously ill children.
Tragically, four year old Bryce Tory is suffering from a congenital heart defect and his wish is to meet his all time favorite racing driver. The Texas base Tri Counties Chapter of Make A Wish has arranged to fly Bryce and his parents from their Simi Valley-California home to Fort Worth to make that special introduction happen.
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Keep a close eye on Kyle Busch during the Texas weekend because you may witness his latest entry to the NASCAR record books. Busch will be looking to be the first driver to sweep three races in NASCAR’s three national touring series on the same weekend. He’s entered in Friday’s Camping World Truck Series race, Saturday’s Nationwide Series race and Sunday’s Sprint Cup event.
This historic feat is no where near as impossible as it may sound. Busch came very close to winning the three races last February at the Auto Club Speedway in California. He won the truck and Nationwide series race on Saturday and finished second in the Cup event the following afternoon.
His Texas Motor Speedway stats are actually very strong. On the Cup side he’ still seeking his first win in Texas but has logged three top six finishes in four starts and has led 207 laps. His Texas stats in the Nationwide Series are astounding where he’s won the last three consecutive series races. He still seeking his first truck series win at Texas but has finished second there three times in his last four starts.
In still more Busch news, Sunday’s Dickie’s 500 will be his first race with new crew chief Dave Rogers who replaced crew chief Steve Addington following last week’s at Talladega. With all due respects to the accomplishments of Rogers at Joe Gibbs Racing, this is a personnel move that many observers are not understanding.
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