Jimmie Johnson’s 69-point lead over second-place Jeff Burton may look secure, but recent history indicates otherwise.
The points leader with five races remaining has failed to win the championship in each of the last two seasons.
In 2006, Johnson was in seventh place and 146 points behind leader Jeff Burton with five races remaining. He won the championship by 56 points, a swing of 202 points.
Last season, he was in second, 68 points behind Jeff Gordon. Johnson won the championship by 77 points, a 145-point swing.
Just 86 points separate the top three drivers and 185 separate the top five. Much can happen, especially when you throw unpredictable Martinsville Speedway – the site of this weekend’s TUMS QuikPak 500 – into the mix.
The Martinsville race could be critical in determining the 2008 championship.
One, the rough-and-tumble nature of Martinsville racing can certainly lead to a contender’s demise. (Of the top three drivers, only third-place Greg Biffle is without a Martinsville DNF.)
Two, Johnson has a near-flawless Martinsville record. Since his first race there in 2002 (a 35th-place finish), Johnson has finished in the top 10 in all 12 races – which includes four wins and nine top fives.
Only one driver matches Johnson’s Martinsville prowess: Jeff Gordon. Gordon has finished in the top 10 in the last 11 races, and the top five in each of the last seven. He is also the active leader in Martinsville wins with seven.
The Hendrick teammates rank one-two in Driver Rating over the last seven races. Gordon has a 124.5; Johnson has a 121.2.
Jeff Burton (No. 31 AT&T Mobility Chevrolet)
• One win, 10 top fives, 14 tops 10s
• Average finish of 14.5
• Average Running Position of 17.9, 14th-best
• Driver Rating of 85.3, 10th-best
• 81 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
• 247 Green Flag Passes, tied for ninth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 90.973 mph, seventh-fastest
• 1,786 (50.9%) Laps in the Top 15, 11th-most
• 1202 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), eighth-most
Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M’s Toyota)
• Three top fives, four top 10s
• Average finish of 16.7
• Average Running Position of 13.1, sixth-best
• Driver Rating of 93.3, sixth-best
• 96 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
• 253 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
• 2,568 (73.2%) Laps in the Top 15, fifth-most
• 182 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), third-most
Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 AMP Energy/National Guard Chevrolet)
• Seven top fives, eight top 10s
• Average finish of 14.3
• Average Running Position of 10.8, fourth-best
• Driver Rating of 100.7, fourth-best
• 275 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
• Series-high 352 Green Flag Passes
• Average Green Flag Speed of 91.200 mph, fourth-fastest
• 2,589 (73.8%) Laps in the Top 15, fourth-most
• Series-high 188 Quality Passes
Carl Edwards (No. 99 Office Depot Ford)
• One top 10
• Average finish of 19.1 in eight races
• Average Running Position of 19.2, 19th-best
• Driver Rating of 72.4, 21st-best
• 34 Fastest Laps Run, tied for 14th-most
• 1,484 (42.3%) Laps in the Top 15, 14th-most
• 135 Quality Passes, sixth-most
Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
• Seven wins, 19 top fives, 25 top 10s; seven poles
• Average finish of 7.0
• Average Running Position of 7.2, second-best
• Series-high Driver Rating of 124.5
• Series-high 420 Fastest Laps Run
• Series-fastest average Green Flag Speed of 91.579 mph
• 3,041 (86.7%) Laps in the Top 15, third-most
• 178 Quality Passes, fourth-most
Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)
• One win, three top fives, five top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 9.5
• Average Running Position of 12.5, fifth-best
• Driver Rating of 100.6, fifth-best
• 129 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 91.157 mph, fifth-fastest
• 2,044 (68.0%) Laps in the Top 15, sixth-best percentage
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