Year Six Of The Chase Begins
Sunday’s Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway kicks off the battle for the 2009 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series title — the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup — which begins with 12 drivers, 12 storylines and possible history-in-the-making.
The field was set last Saturday night at Richmond International Raceway, with the top 12 drivers in the standings at the conclusion of that event eligible to vie for the series title during the season’s final 10 races.
Expect lots of “vying”. And possibilities:
Three-time and reigning series champion Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet) is aiming for a fourth consecutive title, something no NASCAR driver has accomplished. He’s the only driver to participate in all six Chase events.
Four-time series champion Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont/National Guard Yellow Ribbon Chevrolet) is on a “Drive for Five.” His last title came in 2001, and he’s finished in the top five in the standings in four of the past seven seasons. A fifth title leaves only Richard Petty and Dale Earnhardt out of reach; both men have seven series titles.
Two-time series champion Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot Chevrolet) also is attempting to distance himself in the record books. Not only is the first-year owner of Stewart-Haas Racing going for a third series title, he’s also targeting the first for a driver/owner since Alan Kulwicki did it in 1992.
No Longer Retired: Ageless Mark Martin The Top Chase Seed
At the end of the 2006 NASCAR Sprint Cup season, Mark Martin (No. 5 CARQUEST/Kellogg’s Chevrolet) spurned full-time competition, saying he was ready for a break.
But as 2009 loomed, the offer he couldn’t refuse from Hendrick Motorsports came along, and in this, his first full-time season since ’06, Martin has rewarded owner Rick Hendrick’s faith.
Teamed with crew chief Alan Gustafson, the 50-year-old Martin enters this Sunday’s Sylvania 300 as the top seed in the 2009 Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup, on the strength of four wins during the season’s first 26 races. His reset point total is 5,040, 10 points ahead of second seed Tony Stewart and third seed Jimmie Johnson.
Martin hasn’t won at New Hampshire, however. He does have eight top fives, 13 top 10s and two poles there; also, an average finish of 11.1 in 47 career starts.
“Every track that we’ve come back to a second time this year, Alan and these guys have brought me a better race car than we had the time before,” Martin said. “And I have no doubt that that’s going to continue. I’m looking forward to getting there. I’m looking forward to getting back out on the track.”
Loop Data Says Fear The 48: Johnson Quietly, Statistically Dominant
Last season, Jimmie Johnson accomplished a feat that hadn’t happened in 30 years – he won three consecutive NASCAR Sprint Cup Series championships. Now, he’s looking to do something that hasn’t happened, ever – four straight titles.
Every angle of statistical analysis suggests a Johnson “four-peat” is possible. Probable, even.
Johnson’s statistics in previous Chases for the NASCAR Sprint Cup? Dominant. His statistics in the 2009 regular season? Dominant, even though he didn’t lead the series in wins. Statistics at upcoming Chase tracks? Dominant. Johnson’s statistics at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, site of the first Chase race? Strong.
First, look at his statistics in the 50 previous Chase races. The numbers are uncanny. He has scored top-five finishes in over half the Chase races. He leads in every category: wins (14), top fives (26), top 10s (36), average finish (8.7), laps led (2,204). Same goes for the Loop Data compiled since 2005, a span of 40 Chase races: Driver Rating (108.8), Average Running Position (10.1), Laps in the Top 15 percentage (82.4%), Fastest Laps Run percentage (10.5%).
Johnson clearly has the history. He also has momentum. Even though he lost the top seed to Mark Martin, his statistics were the strongest in the regular season. He led the series in Driver Rating (110.3), Average Running Position (8.2), Fastest Laps Run (738), Laps Led (1,252) and Laps in the Top 15 percentage (84.2%).
The upcoming 10 tracks also favor Johnson over all drivers. The schedule change that moved Auto Club Speedway into the Chase even made a difference. There, Johnson has a Driver Rating of 119.4. At Atlanta Motor Speedway, which had previously been a Chase track, he has a Driver Rating of 110.1.
At those 10 tracks, Johnson has a Driver Rating of 109.7. Second-best is Jeff Gordon with a 97.9, a difference of 11.8. Johnson also leads the series in Average Running Position (9.3) and Laps in the Top 15 percentage (83.3%).
Though Johnson’s New Hampshire statistics don’t rank at the top, they rank in the top five. That’s key, as a strong start has proven important. Last season, Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M/Scotch Ford), Johnson and Carl Edwards (No. 99 Aflac Ford) finished 1-2-3 at New Hampshire. Nine races later, the top three in the final standings looked like this: Johnson, Edwards, Biffle.
At New Hampshire since 2005, Johnson has a Driver Rating of 105.3 (third-best), an Average Running Position of 10.1 (third), 206 Fastest Laps Run (third) and a Laps in the Top 15 percentage of 84.1% (second).
Below is a look at Johnson’s Chase history compared to other drivers in key statistics:
Wins
Driver Wins 1. Jimmie Johnson 14 2. Carl Edwards 6 3. Greg Biffle 6 4. Tony Stewart 4 5. Jeff Gordon 3
Average Finish
Avg.
Driver Finish
1. Jimmie Johnson 8.7
2. Jeff Gordon 11.9
3. Carl Edwards 12.2
4. Tony Stewart 12.7
5. Clint Bowyer 13.5
Driver Rating
Driver DR 1. Jimmie Johnson 108.8 2. Carl Edwards 100.0 3. Jeff Gordon 99.3 4. Matt Kenseth 97.7 5. Tony Stewart 96.1
New Hampshire A Crucial First Stop On Chase Schedule
The 2009 Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup begins in New England, travels to both coasts, and ends in South Florida.
Drama dogs each step, but it doesn’t wait until teams settle in.
New Hampshire, site of Sunday’s Sylvania 300, has produced as many plotlines at the start as later Chase events, and doing well at New Hampshire — or not — usually carries forth.
“I don’t really think you can pick that out,” said top-seeded Mark Martin of favorites. “I mean, the Chase is anyone’s to win and anyone’s to lose. All of these teams got in here because they’re good. And all it takes is a stretch of 10 good races to win this. I think any of these 12 teams could win it.”
But Chase hopes can be twisted or expanded at the tricky, 1.058-mile oval. Take last year, when Greg Biffle, then the ninth seed, won the first two Chase races at New Hampshire to establish himself as a contender.
He’s the 12th seed this year (5,000 points), but trails top seeded Mark Martin (5.040 points) by only 40 points as opposed to 2008, when then-top seeded Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M’s Toyota) began with 5,080 points.
“I’m excited about it because if I win the first two races, I’ll be leading the points this year,” said Biffle, “instead of last year I won the first two and I still wasn’t. It’s pretty tight. Forty points, that’s reachable in a couple of races.”
More proof that New Hampshire’s Chase race makes a big difference:
2004 — In the Chase’s first year, eventual series champion Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge) led off with a New Hampshire win. He didn’t win again during the Chase, but gathered enough momentum to beat series runner-up Jimmie Johnson by eight points after the season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
2005 — In a reverse of fortune, Busch encountered immediate trouble (and a 34th-place finish) in the first Chase race at New Hampshire. Meanwhile, eventual champion Tony Stewart finished second, beginning a run of seven top 10s that helped seal his second series title.
2007 — Then-second-year driver Clint Bowyer (No. 33 Cheerios/Hamburger Helper Chevrolet), considered by many as a Chase afterthought, won his first series race in the first Chase race at New Hampshire to establish himself as a contender. He finished third in the final standings that year.
2008 — Top-seeded Kyle Busch got off to a tough start right away. He finished 34th at New Hampshire, encountered more on-track trouble the next week at Dover International Speedway and finished 10th in the final standings.
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