Week 9: Standings Get Tight With Two To Go
Only two races are left in the 2009 season as the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads west to Phoenix International Raceway for the Checker O’Reilly Auto Parts 500.
The standings are tight after Jimmie Johnson’s (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet) accident on Lap 3 last Sunday that relegated him to a 38th-place finish. Mark Martin (No. 5 CARQUEST/Kellogg’s Chevrolet) and Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet) were able to gain ground on Johnson by finishing fourth and 13th respectively. Martin is 73 points behind and Gordon is 112 points behind Johnson.
Catching Johnson is doable. The two largest comebacks to win the championship with two races to go happened in 1990 and 1992.
In 1990, Dale Earnhardt came back to win the title after being down 45 points with two races to go. Ironically, Earnhardt overtook Martin that season to win the championship.
In 1992, Alan Kulwicki set the series record for the largest comeback with two races to go. Kulwicki was third in the standings, 85 points down with two races left, and overtook Bill Elliott and Davey Allison to win the only championship of his career.
“I don’t know why everybody tries to cap this thing out and doesn’t just wait and watch,” Martin said. “There are still two races to go, and still things that can happen.”
Martin posted his second career win at Phoenix earlier this season after leading the most laps. Martin leads the series in top fives (10) and top 10s (16) at Phoenix. Gordon also has a win at the one-mile track.
Johnson, Knaus Look To Rebound Out West
The No. 48 team faced its first dose of adversity during the Chase last Sunday at Texas when Johnson was in an accident on Lap 3 that sent the entire team scrambling to salvage the day. Johnson ended up finishing 38th and the point lead the No. 48 team had accumulated going into Texas had shrunk to 73 points.
“It was definitely not the day we wanted,” Johnson said. “We did not want to lose points like that. Luckily we had a big margin. We’ve been saying all along that anything can happen, but we’re going to two great tracks (Phoenix and Homestead-Miami) for us and we’ll just keep racing.”
Calling Phoenix a “great track for us” is an understatement. Johnson leads the series in wins at Phoenix International Raceway with three. He dominated last season’s Chase event at Phoenix starting on the pole and leading 217 laps for the win.
While Johnson’s Hendrick Motorsports teammates are hoping to close the gap even more this weekend, NASCAR’s Pre-Race Loop Data shows Johnson on top of several key categories: Driver Rating (120.0), Average Running Position (5.479) and Lap In The Top 15 (95.2%).
In 12 starts, Johnson has posted three wins, seven top fives and 10 top 10s at Phoenix International Raceway.
Loop Data : Phoenix “The Perfect Track”
Phoenix International Raceway could be labeled The House of Dominance.
For whatever reason, when a team hits on a setup, that team is hard – and in some cases, impossible – to beat.
Two Phoenix race winners have scored perfect Driver Ratings of 150.0, making Phoenix and Pocono the only two tracks where multiple NASCAR Sprint Cup 150s have been scored.
Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge) did in 2005 and Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet) accomplished the rare feat a year later.
In his April 2005 perfect rating, Busch had an Average Running Position of 1.9, had 76 Fastest Laps Run, led 219 laps and spent all 312 laps running in the top 15.
In the November 2006 race, Harvick posted his 150 with an Average Running Position of 1.2, 72 Fastest Laps Run, 252 Laps Led and 312 of 312 Laps in the Top 15.
There have been 10 perfect Driver Ratings in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series since the inception of the Loop Data statistic in 2005. A small lot, considering 178 races were run over that span.
But in this Phoenix race last season, Jimmie Johnson did something that has happened only once in those 178 events. He scored a Driver Rating of 149.9, just one-tenth of a point away from perfection. In that race, Johnson had an Average Running Position of 1.5, 66 Fastest Laps Run, 217 Laps Led and ran all 313 laps among the top 15. Still, he came up short. If Johnson had led just one more lap, or had one more Fastest Lap Run, he would have scored the perfect 150.0.
So the question remains, will it happen again this weekend? And if so, who are the prime candidates to realize perfection?
Johnson seems like the obvious choice. His stats outshine everyone else’s by a wide margin – especially lately. In the past six Phoenix races, Johnson has scored six top fives. Over that span, he has an average finish of 2.5 (which includes three victories), a Driver Rating of 126.2, an Average Running Position of 4.7, 537 Fastest Laps Run and 842 Laps Led.
Johnson’s prime championship rival, Mark Martin, is also a threat for the perfect 150. If he has another race like the one this past April, it could happen. Martin was just a tick off perfection. He had a Driver Rating of 145.6, an Average Running Position of 2.1 and 157 Laps Led in what was his first of five victories this season.
Best Single Race Driver Ratings (2005-Present)
Driver
Driver Track Date Rating
Kurt Busch Phoenix 4/05 150.0
Kurt Busch Pocono 7/05 150.0
Tony Stewart W. Glen 8/05 150.0
Kevin Harvick Phoenix 11/06 150.0
Kurt Busch Pocono 8/07 150.0
Clint Bowyer New Hamp. 9/07 150.0
Jimmie Johnson Auto Club 8/08 150.0
Kurt Busch Atlanta 3/09 150.0
Jimmie Johnson Dover 5/09 150.0
Denny Hamlin Richmond 9/09 150.0
Jimmie Johnson Phoenix 11/08 149.9
Matt Kenseth Bristol 8/05 149.8
Matt Kenseth Homestead 11/07 149.8
Tony Stewart Texas 11/06 149.7
Greg Biffle Texas 4/05 149.2
Tony Stewart New Hamp. 7/05 149.2
Kyle Busch Bristol 3/09 149.2
Jimmie Johnson Dover 9/09 149.2
Jimmie Johnson Martinsville 10/08 149.1
Denny Hamlin Pocono 7/06 149.0
Clinching Scenarios: What Johnson Can Do To Lock Up The Championship
With two races left in the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup, Jimmie Johnson leads the standings by 73 points over second-place Mark Martin and 112 points over third-place Jeff Gordon.
With the standings tight as the season comes to a close, everyone wants to know what Johnson has to do to clinch the title.
For Johnson to clinch at Phoenix International Raceway, he will need to lead by 195 points after the race. Currently up 73 points, he’ll need to gain 122 points by the race’s end. If he does that, he will clinch no matter what any other driver does.
For Johnson to clinch at Homestead-Miami Speedway, he will need to average a fourth-place finish over the final two races, or fifth and a lap led in each of the final two races, or sixth and the most laps led in each of the final two races. If he does that, he will clinch no matter what any other driver does.
“Yeah, it’s an exciting time for sure,” Johnson said. “There’s still a lot of racing left, and things can go wrong. But I’m really trying to keep my head down and keep this team focused on doing the job the next two weeks.”
“What got us in this position was racing hard and going for every point, and until it’s mathematically locked up, we’re going to keep that mindset and try to get every point that we can.”
If Johnson does win the title, he will make NASCAR history by becoming the first driver in 61 years of NASCAR Sprint Cup Series competition to win four consecutive championships. Chad Knaus also will become the first crew chief to win four consecutive titles.
On The Line: Juan Pablo Montoya
Juan Pablo Montoya (No. 42 Target Chevrolet) was this week’s guest on the weekly NASCAR teleconference. Montoya is currently sixth in the standings.
Q: What is the outlook for moving up in the final standings over these last two races?
Montoya: “Yeah, it’s been a great season. It’s been a great Chase. We’ve just been involved in too many accidents, you know. I see two of them not even being our fault. You can understand the Talladega one. We had Mark Martin run over us in Charlotte. And last week, you know, Carl ran really close to me, took the air out of the car, and I just got really loose. You know, he came later and apologized and everything. But it just happens. It’s what racing is all about. But overall it’s nice to see how good the performance of our cars are. To be honest with you, we didn’t have a great car over the weekend. But even like that we were running fifth, sixth place. And even with a car that was pretty bad balance‑wise, we had a good chance to finish in the top five again and scoring great points.”
Q: What do you think of the negative responses NASCAR has received this season?
Montoya: “To tell you the truth, I think people that complain about a NASCAR race, they haven’t watched any other motor racing. Honestly, if you don’t like what you’re seeing, you shouldn’t be seeing it because it’s the greatest racing you can have in any motorsport scene. It doesn’t get any better than this, I’ll tell you the truth. I’ve been in Formula 1. I’ve been in IndyCars, I’ve been in CART. And the best racing is right here. I’m not saying this because I’m here. I’m saying this because I’ve lived all of them, and nothing compares to this.”
Q: Do you feel you’ll be one of the top contenders next year?
Montoya: “The key for our team is to be able to match the performance that we have this year next year. Of course we want to win races, and of course we want to do better. But if we can match what we did this year, I think the whole team is going to settle as a top team, and I think that’s the key.”
| 
|