By statistical analysis, Brad Keselowski faces an uphill battle in most of the races comprising the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup. Statistics say he’s a dark horse at best and ranked fourth in the standings after four races, over achiever.
He has just the seventh-best Driver Rating (95.9) among Chase qualifiers over the first four races. Likewise, his average running position, 11.4, betters only five other drivers. Only leader Carl Edwards, however, has a better average finish.
And over the next sixth tracks, his Driver Rating is just 67.2, worst among the top 12. One explanation: Keselowski hasn’t been a NASCAR Sprint Cup competitor long enough to have created a large enough body of work to properly weigh his assets and liabilities.
This week’s Bank of America 500 is case in point. Keselowski has run in the series just four times at Charlotte Motor Speedway with a best finish of 12th in 2009. His average start and finish are almost identical, both ticks over 19, although he won the Coors Light Pole for May’s Coca-Cola 600 and finished – yes – 19th. He’s led nine laps.
Something else to consider: the No. 2 Team Penske Dodge’s performance in the second trip of the season to several tracks:
• Bristol Motor Speedway –18th / 1st
• Michigan International Speedway 25th / 3rd
• New Hampshire Motor Speedway 35th / 2nd
• Pocono Raceway 23rd / 1st
It might be argued that Keselowski is just getting warmed up.
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