When the elite of the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series arrives at the Phoenix International Raceway every one’s going to looking for a showdown in the valley of the sun. Will there be a showdown between points leader Jimmie Johnson and his Hendrick Motorsports team mate Mark Martin? It’s very possible. But for Martin, and for that matter Jeff Gordon, it may take another Johnson mulligan similar to what happened in Texas last week before they can get into a serious position to steal the Sprint Cup heading into the final week. No matter how it plays out, Sunday’s Checker O’Reilly Auto Parts 500k is going to be loaded with very watchable drama.
THE CHASE BREAKDOWN
Johnson arrives in Phoenix with a 73 point lead over Martin and a 112 advantage over Gordon. Mathematically speaking those numbers are not insurmountable when you consider that racing comes with an environment where nothing is guaranteed until the event has concluded. But overtaking Johnson’s numbers within the final two races of 2009 will not be easy and, quite frankly it will take a return of the completely unexpected to reach that dramatic height.
There are two different scenarios that will allow Johnson to claim that historic fourth consecutive Sprint Cup championship irregardless of what Martin does over the remaining two races. If circumstances from next Sunday’s race allows Johnson to gain 122 points on Martin and leave Phoenix with a lead of 195 points then the Chase is over one week early.
Now, if Johnson averages fourth place finishes at both Phoenix and Homestead then he will lock down the title even if Martin wins both events. The same scenario applies if Johnson has two fifth place finishes with the bonus points for leading a lap or if he scores two sixth place finishes with the most laps led.
There are of course many more mathematical scenarios that could come into play between now and the final lap of the year at Homestead. What they are will again be dependent upon what finishes Johnson,Martin and Gordon can accomplish.
THE STORY BREAKDOWN
We all watched Kyle Busch come very close to accomplishing the “NASCAR Hat Trick” last weekend in Texas. He won the Camping World Series Truck Series event on Friday, the Nationwide Series race on Saturday and led the majority of laps en route to a potential Cup win on Sunday before his fuel cell ran dry at the end of the race.
Busch will have another chance to score the “Hat Trick” this weekend in Phoenix. He will be driving the #51 Billy Ballew Motorsports Toyota Truck in Friday’s Camping World Series race. On Saturday and Sunday Busch will be behind the wheel of his #18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas.
Also taking on this busy schedule will be Kevin Harvick who will drive his self owned, Kevin Harvick Inc, Chevrolet Truck on Friday and his Chevrolet in Saturday’s Nationwide Series race. On Sunday he returns to his familiar #29 Richard Childress Chevrolet for the Sprint Cup event.
Also seeking the Phoenix Hat Trick will be relative newcomer Kevin Conway who will drive the #71 Chevrolet Truck Friday for owner Rob Fuller, the #26 Ford in Saturday’s Nationwide Series race for owner Dusty Whitney and the #70 Chevrolet in Sunday’s Cup race for Kevin Buckler’s TRG Motorsports. Conway’s sponsor, ExtenZe, will be on the hood of all three vehicles.
Driver Martin Truex Jr is down to his final two races for Earnhardt Ganassi Racing before he departs for his new 2010 ride with Michael Waltrip Racing. EGR likely is hoping that the driver of their #1 Chevrolet will score a good finish for them at Phoenix to help ease the expensive sting from the Texas race.
