Stats: Top 12 Bubble Could Burst For Kenseth
Just 37 points separate 12th-place Matt Kenseth, 13th-place Brian Vickers and 14th-place Kyle Busch heading into the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup cut-off race at Richmond International Raceway.
Though positions five through 15 in the points standings could be jumbled in a number of ways following Saturday night’s Chevy Rock & Roll 400, the proximity between 12th through 14th make those drivers a must watch.
The statistics say Busch may rise from the fray with the Chase spot. In terms of Driver Rating, Richmond ranks as Busch’s best track. For Kenseth and Vickers, it ranks as one of their worst.
Matt Kenseth Driver Rating
By Track
Driver DR 1. Dover 113.9 2. Homestead 113.7 3. Auto Club 113.1 4. Chicagoland 107.8 5. Texas 105.8 19. Richmond 80.8
Brian Vickers Driver Rating
By Track
Driver DR 1. Chicagoland 107.3 2. Pocono 93.9 3. Michigan 93.6 4. Lowe’s 91.7 5. Talladega 90.1 20. Richmond 57.7
Kyle Busch Driver Rating
By Track
Driver DR 1. Richmond 112.1 2. Las Vegas 109.4 3. Auto Club 107.9 4. Bristol 105.5 5. Watkins Glen 104.9
Comparing head-to-head match-ups at Richmond, Busch appears to have a definite chance at overtaking Kenseth. Busch currently trails Kenseth by 37 points. Vickers trails Kenseth by 20. In nine previous Richmond match-ups, Busch has gained more than 37 points on Kenseth four times. In eight races, Vickers has gained 20 on Kenseth at Richmond only once, in May 2008. Below are the four times Busch has gained at least 37 on Kenseth:
Busch vs. Kenseth at Richmond
(Points Gains Over 37 Points)
Busch Kenseth
Date Points Points Difference
5/6/06 160 49 111
5/3/08 170 49 121
9/7/08 123 51 72
5/2/09 190 124 69
Matt Kenseth at Richmond (2005-2009)
Date Finish ARP FLR LT15% DR Led 5/05 12 18.5 0 21.8 76.5 2 9/05 2 5.1 15 100 115.5 3 5/06 38 33.7 27 20 79.4 0 9/06 8 7.1 9 100 107.7 39 5/07 10 17.4 4 55.8 80.8 3 9/07 14 13.1 3 69.5 88.5 0 5/08 38 29.4 6 3.2 47.8 0 9/08 39 28.7 3 31 65 2 5/09 13 20.6 1 19 65.7 0 Totals 19.3 19.3 68 46.6 80.8 49
ARP: Average Running Position; FLR: Fastest Laps Run; LT15%: Percentage of Laps in the Top 15; DR: Driver Rating
Brian Vickers at Richmond (2005-2009)
Date Finish ARP FLR LT15% DR Led 5/05 32 29.8 0 0 44.9 0 9/05 37 28.2 0 17.8 58.1 0 5/06 37 10.5 1 96.8 74 0 9/06 24 23.7 0 0 52.9 0 9/07 24 29.2 6 0.3 51.4 0 5/08 28 30.4 2 0.2 42.4 0 9/08 36 26.7 2 1.5 52.8 0 5/09 15 22.6 8 31.5 85.4 21 Totals 29.1 25.1 19 18.4 57.7 21
ARP: Average Running Position; FLR: Fastest Laps Run; LT15%: Percentage of Laps in the Top 15; DR: Driver Rating
Kyle Busch at Richmond (2005-2009)
Date Finish ARP FLR LT15% DR Led 5/05 4 8 17 100 104.4 0 9/05 4 3.7 22 100 120.5 10 5/06 5 8.6 9 91.8 101.6 7 9/06 2 2.8 90 100 138.4 248 5/07 2 9.1 25 73.8 111.1 27 9/07 20 14.4 0 53.8 77.9 0 5/08 2 3 27 100 120 0 9/08 15 15 35 62.5 105.2 53 5/09 1 4.9 30 100 129.4 53 Totals 6.1 7.7 255 86.9 112.1 398
ARP: Average Running Position; FLR: Fastest Laps Run; LT15%: Percentage of Laps in the Top 15; DR: Driver Rating
