Almost all the numbers point to Kyle Busch, currently 14th in the points, earning a berth in the 2009 Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup after Saturday night’s race at Richmond:
• Richmond is Busch’s best track. His average finish at Richmond is 6.1 and his average Driver Rating is 112.1, both of which put the short track at the top of his list.
• History’s on his side. Vaulting into the Chase field at Richmond isn’t a rare occurrence. It has happened three times, once when the deficit was over 37 points (Busch’s deficit to 12th-place Matt Kenseth). The largest ever erased was 56 points, by Jeremy Mayfield in the inaugural Chase of 2004. The other two drivers who raced their way in at Richmond: Ryan Newman in 2005 and Kasey Kahne in 2006.
• There’s a weird stat quirk that fits perfectly into Busch’s goal. Busch trails Kenseth by 37 points. If Busch races to his average Richmond finish of 6th, he’ll earn 150 points. If Kenseth races to his average Richmond finish of 17th, he’ll earn 112 points. The difference: 38 points.
• As much as Busch has excelled on bigger tracks, he’s a short-track whiz. In the four short-track races this season, Busch has racked up four wins, a Driver Rating of 120.9, an Average Running Position of 9.3 and 499 laps led.
But there’s one key element that can’t be measured by statistics: Kenseth’s perseverance. Kenseth is one of only two drivers to make all five Chases (Jimmie Johnson is the other). Undoubtedly, he’ll do whatever it takes to make it six-for-six.
Selected Driver Highlights
Note: All driver statistics that follow are from Richmond International Raceway. The Loop Data statistics – Driver Rating, Average Running Position, etc. – in this release, however, cover the last nine races at Richmond. NASCAR’s scoring loops began collecting data for statistical purposes in 2005.
Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
• Two top fives, five top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 15.8
• Average Running Position of 15.5, 12th-best
• Driver Rating of 87.6, 13th-best
• 89 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 117.188 mph, 10th-fastest
• 2,243 Laps in the Top 15 (62.1%), 10th-most
• 158 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), 11th-most
Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
• One win, two top fives, five top 10s
• Average finish of 18.7
• Average Running Position of 14.2, 10th-best
• Driver Rating of 94.8, fifth-best
• 237 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
• 408 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 117.379 mph, fifth-fastest
• 244 Quality Passes, third-most
Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M’s Toyota)
• One win, seven top fives, seven top 10s
• Average finish of 6.1
• Average Running Position of 7.7, third-best
• Driver Rating of 112.1, third-best
• 255 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 117.675 mph, second-fastest
• 3,137 Laps in the Top 15 (86.9%), second-most
• 241 Quality Passes, fourth-most
Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 AMP Energy Drink/National Guard Chevrolet)
• Three wins, eight top fives, 10 top 10s
• Average finish of 11.9
• Average Running Position of 12.2, seventh-best
• Driver Rating of 92.9, eighth-best
• 208 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
• 486 Green Flag Passes, third-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 117.269 mph, sixth-fastest
Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)
• Three top fives, four top 10s; two poles
• Average finish of 9.6
• Series-best Average Running Position of 5.1
• Series-best Driver Rating of 116.9
• 244 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
• Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 117.741 mph
• 2,754 Laps in the Top 15 (98.0%), fifth-most
Matt Kenseth (No. 17 DEWALT Ford)
• One win, three top fives, nine top 10s
• Average finish of 16.7
• Average Running Position of 19.3, 21st-best
• Driver Rating of 80.8, 17th-best
• 68 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-most
• 1,681 Laps in the Top 15 (46.6%), 15th-most
Mark Martin (No. 5 Kellogg’s/CARQUEST Chevrolet)
• One win, 16 top fives, 26 top 10s; three poles
• Average finish of 11.9
• Average Running Position of 13.6, ninth-best
• Driver Rating of 93.6, seventh-best
• 98 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 117.236 mph, eighth-fastest
• 2,320 Laps in the Top 15 (64.3%), eighth-most
Ryan Newman (No. 39 U.S. Army Chevrolet)
• One win, five top fives, nine top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 11.7
• Average Running Position of 10.3, fifth-best
• Driver Rating of 94.6, sixth-best
• Average Green Flag Speed of 117.247 mph, seventh-fastest
• 3,082 Laps in the Top 15 (85.4%), third-most
• 215 Quality Passes, sixth-most
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