For the third consecutive year, New Hampshire Motor Speedway hosts the first event in the Race to the Chase – the 10 races preceding the “post-season” Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup.
As the points currently stand, four drivers inside the top 12 are within 50 points of being bounced out of the top 12: Kyle Busch, Matt Kenseth, Mark Martin and Juan Pablo Montoya. And three drivers outside the top 12 are 50 points from vaulting into the top 12: Kasey Kahne, David Reutimann and Jeff Burton.
In other words, it’s close – very close. The next 10 races and tracks will decide who’s in and who’s out.
The statistics suggest Busch is the safest of those inside the top 12. He has a 48-point cushion to the Chase cutoff, and has the fifth-best average Driver Rating at the next 10 tracks (96.9).
Of those on the outside looking in, Burton seems most likely to make the comeback. At the next 10 tracks, he has a Driver Rating of 86.4 and Average Running Position of 15.2.
The 12 drivers who do make the Chase will have their points reset to 5,000 – with 10 bonus points added to that total for each win prior to the Chase.
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Only 100 points remain, meaning those comfortably inside the top 12 are aiming at one target – Victory Lane.
Tony Stewart, with one win this season, seems most likely to pad his bonus points total. He has 21 career wins at the next 10 tracks, as well as a Driver Rating of 106.1 and an Average Running Position of 10.5 – both of which are the best among drivers currently in the top 15.
Selected Driver Highlights
Note: All driver statistics that follow are from New Hampshire Motor Speedway. The Loop Data statistics – Driver Rating, Average Running Position, etc. – in this release, however, cover the last eight races at New Hampshire. NASCAR’s scoring loops began collecting data for statistical purposes in 2005.
Jeff Burton (No. 31 Caterpillar Chevrolet)
• Four wins, eight top fives, 13 top 10s
• Average finish of 12.8
• Average Running Position of 11.4, seventh-best
• Driver Rating of 96.4, seventh-best
• 341 Green Flag Passes, 13th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 123.925 mph, sixth-fastest
• 1,772 Laps in the Top 15 (74.1%), sixth-most
• 178 Quality Passes, ninth-most
Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 AMP Energy Drink/National Guard Chevrolet)
• Five top fives, eight top 10s
• Average finish of 17.2
• Average Running Position of 10.9, sixth-best
• Driver Rating of 103.1, fourth-best
• 140 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 124.222 mph, third-fastest
• 1,899 Laps in the Top 15 (79.4%), third-most
• 238 Quality Passes, second-most
Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
• Three wins, 12 top fives, 15 top 10s; three poles
• Average finish of 11.6
• Series-best Average Running Position of 7.5
• Driver Rating of 106.7, second-best
• 196 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 124.241 mph, second-fastest
• Series-high 2,142 Laps in the Top 15 (89.5%)
• Series-high 261 Quality Passes
Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)
• One win, two top fives, five top 10s
• Average finish of 7.2
• Average Running Position of 9.2, second-best
• Driver Rating of 103.6, third-best
• Average Green Flag Speed of 124.031 mph, fourth-fastest
• 1,564 Laps in the Top 15 (87.3%), eighth-most
• 223 Quality Passes, fifth-most
Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet)
• One win, three top fives, nine top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 12.6
• Average Running Position of 10.1, fourth-best
• Driver Rating of 102.2, sixth-best
• 122 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 123.975 mph, fifth-fastest
• 1,791 Laps in the Top 15 (74.9%), fifth-most
Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet)
• Two wins, four top fives, nine top 10s
• Average finish of 9.9
• Average Running Position of 10.7, fifth-best
• Driver Rating of 102.8, fifth-best
• 160 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 123.808 mph, eighth-fastest
• 1,979 Laps in the Top 15 (82.7%), second-most
• 232 Quality Passes, third-most
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