Prediction: Kahne Misses Chase, Kyle Busch Makes It
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I was co-hosting a show on Sirius NASCAR Radio the other day when I was asked how I saw the Chase for the Sprint Cup shaping up.
In other words, who did I think would make it and who wouldn’t.
Well, with two races to go to determine the 12-driver field that comprises the 2009 Chase, I predict that all of the current top-12 make it, but with one key exception.
Unless he has nothing short of outstanding runs both next Sunday at Atlanta and the following Saturday in the pre-Chase finale at Richmond, Kasey Kahne will not make the 10-race Chase.
In his place, Kyle Busch will jump up from his current 13th spot in the standings and will make the Chase.
Kahne, who lost three spots in the standings following Saturday’s miserable 28th-place finish at Bristol is currently ranked 11th, 18 points ahead of 12th-ranked Matt Kenseth, while Busch is just 34 points behind Kenseth.
While Kasey had some strong runs immediately following his win at Sonoma in June, he’s failed to make the top-10 in each of his last three starts.
Busch, on the other hand, has Saturday’s win at Bristol and a 4th-place finish at Watkins Glen three weeks ago to give him some much-needed momentum.
What’s more, in head-to-head competition, Busch has four wins, six top-5 and eight top-10 finishes, while Kahne has just one win, four top-5 and nine top-10s.
Busch has the talent to win at both Atlanta and Richmond. Kahne does, too, but he seems to do better at Richmond than Atlanta. If he struggles and drops out of the top-12 after Atlanta, he’s going to have one very difficult time of trying to work his way back into the Chase field in the final qualifying race.
In fact, Kahne could have a decent performance at Richmond and still wind up short and fail to make the Chase. Ask Tony Stewart about that: he the 2005 Cup championship, only to fail to make the chase by a mere 16 points the following season.
Oh, and the guy who snuck past him to make the Chase that year? None other than Kasey Kahne.
Sure, Mark Martin, Kenseth, Greg Biffle and Juan Pablo Montoya could also have bad days in the next two events and miss the Chase. Remember, from seventh (Ryan Newman) to 12th (Kenseth, just 50 points separate the six drivers who will have to work the hardest.
Busch, meanwhile, knows he needs to go for the wins, but he also may wind up sitting the prettiest of anyone hoping to make the Chase: he’ll be the biggest beneficiary if Newman, Biffle, Montoya, Martin, Kahne or Kenseth falter in one or both of the next two races.
And if Busch does make the Chase and Kahne or one of the others doesn’t, watch for Kurt’s younger brother to show why he belonged in the “playoffs” and the other guy didn’t.
Catch you Wednesday right here at ARD.
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