Kahne’s, Vickers’ and Edwards’ Chase Hopes Could Rest on Sunday
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Is it too early to say that Sunday’s race in Kansas – the third of 10 races in the Chase for the Sprint Cup – could ultimately wind up being the turning point of the Chase?
For guys at the bottom of the 12-driver Chase field, like 12th-ranked Kasey Kahne (189 points in back of leader Mark Martin) and Nos. 10 and 11 Brian Vickers (151 back) and Carl Edwards (153), one more bad race could effectively seal any chance of making a big comeback in the remaining seven races of the Chase.
If Kahne, Vickers or Edwards slip more than 200 points back after Sunday’s race, it’s a pretty safe assumption that they’re done, history, fini.
If that were to happen, their fans could talk all they want about how Jimmie Johnson rebounded from nearly 250 points back after the fourth race in 2006 to rally and win what prove to be the first of three consecutive Sprint Cup championships.
But frankly, Kahne, Vickers or Edwards aren’t even close to being in Johnson’s league. Sure, they may pull off a win here or there – or in Edwards’ case, he won a series-leading nine races last year, only to fail to reach victory lane even once this season – but its doubtful they and their respective crew chiefs can emulate what Johnson and Chad Knaus have done the last three years.
And are threatening to do again for a fourth consecutive year.
And, frankly, 8th-ranked Jeff Gordon (122 points behind Martin) and 9th-ranked Greg Biffle (128 points back) aren’t all that safe themselves. If Martin or Johnson win Sunday’s race – and my money is on Johnson that he will do exactly that – it’ll only serve to put even more distance between the No. 48 and the rest of the pack.
In other words, déjà vu, flashbacks, or NASCAR’s version of the movie Groundhog Day. Like Herman Hermit’s said about Henry VIII, “Second Verse, Same as the First.” Only in this case, it will be Fourth Verse, Same as the First.
After Kansas, we have wildcard races at California, Charlotte, Martinsville and Talladega. That’s why if anyone’s going to do some gettin’, they better get while the gettin’s good, and that has to be this weekend at Kansas.
I still think the Chase will come down to a four-driver battle heading into Homestead, but if Johnson repeats what he did this past Sunday at Dover, my hopes for the closest Chase battle since the inaugural edition in 2004 are going to be quickly dashed.
It’s not a must-win race for Martin or Johnson, or even for Juan Pablo Montoya, Kurt Busch, Tony Stewart, Denny Hamlin or Ryan Newman, for that matter. And Gordon and Biffle aren’t completely out in the woods, either.
But for Vickers, Edwards and Kahne, if they hope to have any chance of salvaging a championship the rest of the way, their Chase has to start at Kansas.
Otherwise, it’s likely it’s going to end at Kansas, instead.
Have a good weekend, everyone, and remember, I’m picking Johnson to win this Sunday. So far, I picked Martin to win at New Hampshire, where he did, and Dover, where he finished second. That’s not a bad batting average so far, is it? Let’s see if I can extend it this Sunday.
Posted by Jerry Bonkowski on 10/01 at 09:58 PMSorry I won’t see you in Kansas Jerry. Maybe next year!
My pic…Mr. Martin.
I’m off to the race…Toto, I’ve a feeling we’re going to have a good race in Kansas this year.
-Taglia
I hope you see some good racing Taglia… wish I was up there with ya!
