The prognosticating has ended. It’s time for delivery.
The Chase for the Sprint Cup begins this Sunday at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, kicking off a 10-week playoff that will determine whether Jimmie Johnson and Chad Knaus win a record fourth consecutive championship, or if we will anoint a champ following the season-ending race at Homestead.
While I’m as pumped about a Chase as I’ve been since the original edition in 2004, there’s a cautionary tale of sorts attached to this year’s Chase, as well.
NASCAR needs big numbers in virtually each and every way, probably more so than prior to any Chase to date. It needs big TV ratings, big at-track attendance and big overall media coverage.
Simply put, NASCAR needs a lot of big attention in each and every way.
This year’s Chase is arguably the most important of the six editions that NASCAR has brought us. While the future of the sport is not totally at stake, per se, the future of the Chase may be.
It’s no secret that the Chase has seen its marquee significance and appeal drop over the last three years. While certainly not intended as a knock to Johnson, but his quest for three straight championships didn’t exactly translate into the most exciting or compelling racing from other drivers in the Chase.
Johnson’s and Knaus’s formulaic way to win championships caused a lot of people to turn off and out, rather than tune on and in. Winning three in a row may have been exciting for JJ fans, but drops in ratings and attendance proved that a lot of other folks weren’t exactly thrilled.
People cared a great deal about the Chase in 2004; by last year, many of those same people considered the Chase nothing more than an afterthought. It gets pretty mundane if the same guy keeps winning the majority of the races and all the championships year after year.
But this year’s Chase field, in my opinion, is probably the best we’ve seen since the first year of the event in 2004. Sure, it would have been nice to have Kyle Busch in this year’s Chase, but it is what it is – and we and NASCAR (and Kyle, too) will go on and make the best of it.
In fact, and I’ve said it here before on ARD, Kyle is in a perfect position to emulate what Tony Stewart did in 2006. One year after winning his second Cup championship, Stewart failed to make the Chase by only a handful of points.
While that may have deflated the motivation of another driver, Stewart took missing the chase as inspiration and opportunity, going on to steal much of Johnson’s thunder that year by winning three of the 10 Chase events. KyBusch is in a position to do exactly the same this year.
Like I said earlier, more than anything, this year’s Chase is like a puppy: it needs attention – and lots of it. And given the stellar field (even with being minus Busch and Dale Earnhardt Jr.), I think we’ll see a robust rebound in the TV rankings and at-track attendance, particularly if the top three storylines revolve around Mark Martin’s quest for his first career Cup championship, Stewart’s bid to win a title in his first year as a team co-owner and the other 11 drivers trying to put the brakes on Johnson’s bid for title No. 4.
If all that happens week after week and race after race over these next 10 weeks, and we have a nail-biter battle for the title all the way to the final lap of the final race, I predict a significant resurgence in fan attention paid to NASCAR. That means just like the economy, NASCAR will be on its way back upward.
And to me, it couldn’t come at a better – and more needed – time.
Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on 09/17 at 09:32 PM
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