Richmond: Chase For Sprint Cup Comes Down to One Race
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This is it: the haves vs. the have nots, the wannabes vs. the won’t be’s, those that do vs. those that don’t.
Welcome to Saturday’s Rock & Roll 400 at Richmond International Raceway, otherwise known as the final race to qualify for the Chase for the Sprint Cup.
After two years of not having much of a bonafide points battle for drivers on the bubble heading into Richmond, we’ve got a humdinger this time.
Brian Vickers and Kyle Busch come into Richmond on the outside looking in, intending to do everything they can to make the 12-driver Chase.
The duo essentially has nothing to lose but to go all-out for the win. Of course, they know that even winning may not be enough to get them in the Chase, but they’re going to give it their best shot and hold out hope upon hope that they can get the job done.
But that job isn’t going to be easy, especially since Matt Kenseth, currently ranked 12th in the standings and the most vulnerable driver on the bubble, just 20 points ahead of Vickers and 37 in front of Busch, is one of the toughest drivers in clutch situations.
To further illustrate that, Kenseth is one of only two drivers who’ve made all five previous editions of the Chase, the other being three-time defending champ Jimmie Johnson, who has already secured his spot in his sixth consecutive Chase.
Kenseth isn’t the only one that has to be concerned going into Saturday’s race. His Roush Fenway Racing teammate, Greg Biffle, and former Roush teammate Mark Martin, are each less than 50 points ahead of Roush – and Ryan Newman is less than 70 points ahead of Kenseth.
Every one of those men has to have a successful night, lest they wind up on the outside looking in, thus allowing Vickers or Busch – or both – the opportunity to crash the Chase party.
Prior to this past Sunday’s race at Atlanta, I had been predicting that Kasey Kahne would not make the Chase. He took care of that by winning at ATL.
So now it’s time to try again. I still think Busch will make the Chase, but it could come at the expense of Biffle. And frankly, Martin, who is tied with Busch for most wins this season (each with four apiece), isn’t all that safer.
In an ironic twist of sorts, even though they lead their peers in wins, Martin and Busch both stand a realistic chance of not making the Chase – which runs counter to one of the main reasons the so-called playoff was created, to reward wins.
This year’s run-up to Richmond reminds me a lot of 2006, when Kahne knocked out Tony Stewart from making the Chase, falling short by a mere 16 points.
What made that ironic is that Stewart won the Cup championship the previous year. But missing the Chase didn’t seem to phase Stewart, either: he wound up winning three of the 10 Chase races, even though he wasn’t a part of the field.
So, if you’re a fan of Busch, Vickers, Kenseth, Martin, Biffle or Newman, if your driver fails to make the Chase, don’t count him out completely. Just like Stewart did in 2006, your guy still has a chance of making a lot of noise in the Chase – even if he doesn’t win the championship.
It’s like picking up a phone and dialing a faraway friend: it’s the next best thing to being there. But if you or any of the drivers on the bubble had their druthers, you’d much rather be there in person than watching from the sidelines.
Such is the beauty of the Chase.
Have a good weekend everyone, and we’ll catch you back here Monday – with the 2009 Chase field finalized.
