It’s happening again. The same feeling I had the last three years has once again raised its ugly head.
Sure, I’ve been saying for the last five or six weeks that the Sprint Cup championship is Jimmie Johnson’s, lock, stock and barrel.
But just like the past three years, as we leave Phoenix and head to the season finale at Homestead next Sunday, I’m starting to get a sick feeling in my stomach.
Johnson has managed to avoid trouble and earn enough points in each of the last three years to win the championship each time in the season finale at Homestead. And with a 108-point lead over Mark Martin after his win Sunday at Phoenix, it’s very unlikely Johnson will not win title No. 4.
But last Sunday’s outcome at Texas, when Johnson gave back 111 points after crashing early in the race is etched on my mind like cold steel on ice. And even though NASCAR’s statisticians say Johnson only has to finish 25th at Homestead to secure his fourth consecutive title, I keep wondering what if he has another Texas, so to speak?
What if he doesn’t finish 25th or higher? What if Mark Martin goes on to win at Homestead while Johnson suffers another wreck or perhaps mechanical failure? Then what?
Out the window goes JJ’s No. 4, that’s what. There’ll be no coming back, no rallying, no chance to get back what you lost in the next race – like he did at Phoenix – because there will be no other races left to get anything back.
Maybe I’m being a worry wart, or just a downright pessimist, but I feel more insecure now than I have the past three seasons as Johnson heads to Homestead.
Texas came out of nowhere. No one expected JJ to crash on the third lap or to finish as far down in the pack as he did. But Texas proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that if it can happen once, it could happen again. Lightning can strike twice.
I’m not saying it’s going to happen, of course, but there is certainly cause for concern. This is when the biggest “what if?” game of the season begins.
Remember 2004, the first year of the Chase format? Kurt Busch and Johnson, along with Jeff Gordon and a few others, all had a legitimate chance at the title heading into the season-ending race at Homestead. It was a matter of who would ultimately survive.
Busch overcame a number of issues, including a wheel incredulously coming off his car that almost sent him into a retaining wall, to rally and beat Johnson by a mere eight points.
Who’s to say Johnson couldn’t have a Texas-like or even a 2004 Busch-like malady strike his team? Martin suddenly becomes the man with the spotlight upon him for the rest of the Homestead race, whether he can earn enough points to overtake Johnson.
That is, provided, Martin doesn’t suffer problems of his own.
And then there’s the sentimental factor. Sure, Johnson is going for a fourth consecutive title, something no one has ever done in NASCAR – although Tony Schumacher just earned his fifth straight Top Fuel title Sunday in NHRA drag racing.
But what about Martin? If he loses to Johnson, it will mark the fifth time in his career that Martin was the bridesmaid but not the bride. How devastating can that be on someone’s psyche – regardless of what he says in media interviews – to know you’re a great race car driver … well, great enough to finish second five times, but not great enough to win even one Cup championship in your career?
After Sunday’s win at Phoenix, Johnson said something I found a little chilling. He said that he plans on attempting to qualify as high as he can and to stay in front for as much of the race as he can.
That struck me as odd, as he spent the last two Chases essentially racing in mid-pack, earning just enough points – and staying out of trouble – to clinch the title without much drama. Remember how opposing cars gave him so much room that you’d thought he had the swine flu and no one wanted to come close enough to catch it – or forever go down in history being known as the guy that cost Johnson the championship.
But if Johnson is telling us he’s going for the lead, and potentially the win right from the checkered flag, that could be a huge mistake, a veritable recipe for disaster, another potential Texas in the making.
Why is he going to race as if he has nothing to lose, when he actually has so very much to lose, including putting his name all alone in the NASCAR history and record books?
I don’t know about you, but I’m not going to feel very confidant about Johnson’s fourth title until I see him standing on the post-race podium.
If I see him on the post-race podium, that is. And right now, I’m feeling 50-50 at best that I will.
Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on 11/15 at 09:27 PMThis is why the sport misses Earnhardt so much.
I bet you anything if Dale Sr. were still with us, Johnson would probably still be looking for his first title. Because JJ exemplifies what NASCAR has become: A sport for pansies, where balls-to-the-walls racing has been replaced by vanilla drivers who rely on technology instead of their skill. How many times has someone tapped Johnson and he gets upset? Can you imagine if Earnhardt was out there? He would’ve tapped Johnson, then put him in the wall for complaining. Then the following week put him in the wall again on principle alone.
It’s a joke that Jimmie Johnson is being mentioned in the same breath as the all-time greats like Petty, Waltrip, Pearson, Yarborough and Earnhardt. Even his buddy Jeff Gordon stands head and shoulders above JJ, because he came up with Earnhardt and tussled more than once with him on the racetrack, giving just as well as he took. Johnson has enjoyed a bogus points system and a sport that has been stripped of everything that put it on the map. Drivers afraid to go near him lest they hurt his chances at a title? What in God’s name would Earnhardt have thought if someone dared to bring that idea up to him?
What you have been looking for is here: it’s name is Brad Keselowski. The fact that a certain AP/Yahoo writer can’t write enough stories about how NSC drivers don’t like his style is proof enough (the most laughable is JP Montoya, who seems to think that the entire track belongs to him, and has wrecked quite a few drivers for no reason)
Best part: he doesn’t seem to care.
I like Dale Sr, but we got to move on.
mmark
I guess my point is more along the lines of, yes, what Jimmie Johnson has done is impressive, although it’s nowhere near the accomplishment of winning 4 consecutive Winston Cups. The “Chase” Era has watered down the sport from what it was, as have all the rule changes and coddling of drivers.
All you need to do is read through Jerry ‘s column again and realize that what he says is true: drivers avoid Johnson like the plague because they’re afraid not only of “wrecking history”, but also of the hefty fines and penalties that NASCAR would dish out if they even think about driving aggressively. No one wants to wreck Johnson and destroy his chance at a 4th Title, and I have no doubt that the sentiment comes from the top. And while I used Earnhardt’s name, you could just as easily say DW, or Bobby Allison, or Cale Yarborough, my point being that I could just imagine the reaction you would get from one of these guys if they were told to use kid gloves while driving.
Additionally, drivers are defined more by the team they drive for and the equipment they use than their skills. Junior Johnson was asked during the Hall of Fame weekend who he considers the best driver right now, and without hesitation he said Tony Stewart, then mentioned Jeff Gordon as the best driver he’s seen in the modern era. When asked about Jimmie Johnson, Junior said “he has a fast car”, and left it at that. To me, that comment, more than anything, speaks volumes about how Jimmie Johnson is viewed by the legends and effectively puts an end to the debate about whether JJ should be considered as one of the all-time greats.
Sounds about right. I had not heard Junior Johnson’s comments on Smoke and Jeff, and fully agree.
Jerry- you paying attention? This man knows of what he speaks.
Mmark
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